Denver Summit W vs Angel City W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Denver Summit W and 1.83 for Angel City W, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Angel City W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Angel City W win

45.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Denver Summit W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Angel City W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Angel City W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Denver Summit W and 1.83 for Angel City W, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Denver Summit W win32%

Draw23%

Angel City W win46%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.8%
1–29.0%
2–17.4%
2–26.7%
0–16.6%

Recent form

Denver Summit W

2026-10-24T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-18T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T01:50:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Reign FC W · 2-1 (W)

Angel City W

2026-10-25T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Washington Spirit W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Utah Royals W · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-10-18T00:45:00.000Z · Denver Summit W 2-3 Angel City W (NWSL Women)
2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · Denver Summit W 3-3 Angel City W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	29	17	7	5	14	58
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	29	11	3	15	-7	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Angel City W win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.