Denver Summit W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Denver Summit W and 1.33 for Racing Louisville W, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Denver Summit W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Denver Summit W win

53.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Denver Summit W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Louisville W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Denver Summit W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Denver Summit W and 1.33 for Racing Louisville W, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Denver Summit W win54%

Draw22%

Racing Louisville W win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.5%
1–19.4%
2–07.2%
1–07.1%
3–16.4%

Recent form

Denver Summit W

2026-10-24T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-18T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T01:50:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Reign FC W · 2-1 (W)

Racing Louisville W

2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego Wave W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego Wave W · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	29	17	7	5	14	58
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	29	11	3	15	-7	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Denver Summit W win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.