Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla · Analysis updated 16:31 UTC
Deportes Copiapo vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.23 for D. Puerto Montt, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Deportes Copiapo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportes Copiapo win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportes Copiapo home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
D. Puerto Montt away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Deportes Copiapo
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Antofagasta · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 1-2 (L)
D. Puerto Montt
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Nublense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-22T23:30:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 0-2 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2022-11-19T23:00:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 4-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2022-11-15T23:30:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 0-3 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2022-10-25T23:00:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 1-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2022-05-21T16:30:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 5-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2021-12-01T20:45:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 2-2 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2021-11-25T23:30:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 1-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2021-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 2-2 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2021-04-03T18:00:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 0-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
- 2020-12-15T13:00:00.000Z · Deportes Copiapo 1-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | San Luis | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 54 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | -2 | 42 |
| 7 | Deportes Copiapo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 41 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Deportes Iquique | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportes Copiapo win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.