Estadio Tierra de Campeones · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.38 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Antofagasta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportes Iquique home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Antofagasta away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Deportes Iquique
- 2026-10-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-12T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 1-4 (L)
Antofagasta
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Iquique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union San Felipe · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 1-1 Antofagasta (Primera B)
- 2026-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 0-4 Antofagasta (Primera B)
- 2025-05-11T16:30:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 1-3 Antofagasta (Copa Chile)
- 2025-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 2-4 Antofagasta (Copa Chile)
- 2024-06-29T00:30:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 3-1 Antofagasta (Copa Chile)
- 2024-06-23T16:30:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 1-2 Antofagasta (Copa Chile)
- 2023-11-26T21:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 3-0 Antofagasta (Primera B)
- 2023-11-19T21:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 2-2 Antofagasta (Primera B)
- 2023-06-18T21:30:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 3-2 Antofagasta (Primera B)
- 2023-02-11T21:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 3-0 Antofagasta (Primera B)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | San Luis | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 54 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Antofagasta | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 48 |
| 5 | Magallanes | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 46 |
| 6 | San Marcos de Arica | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Recoleta | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | -2 | 42 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 41 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Deportes Iquique | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 36 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -20 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.