Deportes Limache vs Cobresal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.50 for Cobresal, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Deportes Limache the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Deportes Limache win

47.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportes Limache home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cobresal away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportes Limache to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Deportes Limache and 1.50 for Cobresal, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Deportes Limache win48%

Draw22%

Cobresal win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.4%
2–19.0%
1–27.0%
2–26.8%
1–06.3%

Recent form

Deportes Limache

2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobresal · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton de Vina · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-22T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Huachipato · 3-1 (W)

Cobresal

2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs D. La Serena · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · Deportes Limache 3-0 Cobresal (Primera División)
2026-03-15T21:00:00.000Z · Deportes Limache 5-2 Cobresal (Primera División)
2025-10-18T20:30:00.000Z · Deportes Limache 2-0 Cobresal (Primera División)
2025-04-26T18:00:00.000Z · Deportes Limache 1-3 Cobresal (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	24	17	3	4	23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	24	11	4	9	3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	10	4	10	8	34
7	D. La Serena	25	8	9	8	-3	33
8	Coquimbo Unido	23	9	5	9	3	32
9	Concepción	25	9	5	11	-3	32
10	Huachipato	24	9	5	10	-6	32
11	Nublense	24	8	8	8	-9	32
12	A. Italiano	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	-10	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	-10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	-22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	4	6	14	-21	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportes Limache win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.