Deportes Limache vs Nublense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.63 for Nublense, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Nublense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportes Limache home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nublense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nublense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Deportes Limache and 1.63 for Nublense, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Deportes Limache win34%

Draw24%

Nublense win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–28.8%
2–17.9%
0–17.5%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Deportes Limache

2026-10-25T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobresal · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-0 (W)

Nublense

2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	25	17	4	4	23	55
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	24	13	3	8	15	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	3	38
6	Deportes Limache	25	11	4	10	9	37
7	Nublense	25	9	8	8	-8	35
8	D. La Serena	25	8	9	8	-3	33
9	Coquimbo Unido	24	9	5	10	2	32
10	Concepción	25	9	5	11	-3	32
11	Huachipato	24	9	5	10	-6	32
12	A. Italiano	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	-10	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	-10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	25	6	5	14	-23	23
16	Union La Calera	25	5	6	14	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.