Deportes Santa Cruz vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.42 for D. Puerto Montt, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives D. Puerto Montt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportes Santa Cruz home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
D. Puerto Montt away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates D. Puerto Montt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.42 for D. Puerto Montt, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Deportes Santa Cruz win35%

Draw26%

D. Puerto Montt win40%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–19.1%
1–28.6%
1–08.5%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Deportes Santa Cruz

2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Antofagasta · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Temuco · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 1-3 (L)

D. Puerto Montt

2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Nublense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	29	15	9	5	22	54
2	San Luis	29	15	9	5	14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	14	8	7	16	50
4	Antofagasta	29	13	9	7	25	48
5	Magallanes	29	13	7	9	1	46
6	San Marcos de Arica	29	11	10	8	7	43
7	Recoleta	29	11	9	9	-2	42
8	Deportes Copiapo	29	11	8	10	1	41
9	Union Espanola	29	11	6	12	-3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	9	11	9	9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	11	5	13	-7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	29	9	9	11	4	36
13	Curico Unido	29	7	10	12	-20	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	4	12	13	-14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	5	8	16	-34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	5	6	18	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.