· Analysis updated 00:36 UTC
Deportes Temuco vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Deportes Temuco and 1.02 for Deportes Santa Cruz, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Deportes Temuco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportes Temuco win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportes Temuco home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportes Santa Cruz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportes Temuco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Deportes Temuco and 1.02 for Deportes Santa Cruz, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Deportes Temuco
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers de Talca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 3-1 (W)
Deportes Santa Cruz
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Antofagasta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Temuco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | San Luis | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 54 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
| 6 | San Marcos de Arica | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Recoleta | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | -2 | 42 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 41 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Deportes Iquique | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 36 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportes Temuco win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.