Estadio Victor Montoya Segura · Analysis updated 15:16 UTC
Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Union Comercio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Deportiva Agropecuaria and 1.18 for Union Comercio, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Union Comercio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Comercio win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportiva Agropecuaria home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Comercio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Comercio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 23% / 31% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Deportiva Agropecuaria and 1.18 for Union Comercio, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.6%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–210.3%
Recent form
Deportiva Agropecuaria
- 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Comercio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cesar Vallejo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs U. San Martin · 1-3 (L)
Union Comercio
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Molinos El Pirata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Agropecuaria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · H vs U. San Martin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · Deportiva Agropecuaria 1-0 Union Comercio (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-31T20:30:00.000Z · Deportiva Agropecuaria 0-1 Union Comercio (Segunda División)
- 2025-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · Deportiva Agropecuaria 2-0 Union Comercio (Segunda División)
- 2025-08-10T20:00:00.000Z · Deportiva Agropecuaria 0-2 Union Comercio (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -43 | 0 |
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -39 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Comercio win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.