Deportiva Minera vs Lorca Deportiva Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Deportiva Minera and 0.95 for Lorca Deportiva, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Deportiva Minera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Deportiva Minera win

53.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportiva Minera home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lorca Deportiva away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportiva Minera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Deportiva Minera and 0.95 for Lorca Deportiva, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Deportiva Minera win53%

Draw25%

Lorca Deportiva win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.4%
1–111.8%
2–010.1%
2–19.6%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Deportiva Minera

2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcoyano · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Deportiva · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-16T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense B · 2-0 (W)

Lorca Deportiva

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellonense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche II · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportiva Minera win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.