Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán · Analysis updated 01:47 UTC
Deportiva Minera vs Ucam Murcia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Deportiva Minera and 1.18 for Ucam Murcia, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Deportiva Minera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportiva Minera home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ucam Murcia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportiva Minera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Deportiva Minera and 1.18 for Ucam Murcia, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Deportiva Minera
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcoyano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Deportiva · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense B · 2-0 (W)
Ucam Murcia
- 2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Elche II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Real Betis II | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Sevilla Atletico | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Estepona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Puente Genil | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Sanluqueño | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Tenerife II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Xerez | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Atlético Central | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.