· Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
Deportiva Venados vs Tritons Vallarta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Deportiva Venados and 0.88 for Tritons Vallarta, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Deportiva Venados the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportiva Venados win
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportiva Venados home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tritons Vallarta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportiva Venados to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Deportiva Venados and 0.88 for Tritons Vallarta, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Deportiva Venados
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres de Alica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Pioneros de Cancún · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Playa del Carmen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Celaya · 2-2 (D)
Tritons Vallarta
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reboceros La Piedad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Venados · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-22T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapachula · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportiva Venados win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.