Deportivo Alavés II vs Eibar II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Deportivo Alavés II and 1.40 for Eibar II, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Eibar II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportivo Alavés II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Eibar II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eibar II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Deportivo Alavés II and 1.40 for Eibar II, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo Alavés II win33%

Draw26%

Eibar II win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–110.1%
1–08.9%
1–28.7%
2–17.6%

Recent form

Deportivo Alavés II

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugalete · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Llanera · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Coruxo · 0-2 (L)

Eibar II

2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ourense CF · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.