· Analysis updated 08:46 UTC
Deportivo Alavés II vs Gernika Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Deportivo Alavés II and 2.53 for Gernika, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Gernika the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gernika win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Alavés II home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gernika away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.4%
- 0–36.8%
Recent form
Deportivo Alavés II
- 2026-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gernika · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugalete · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 5-2 (W)
Gernika
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Astorga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amorebieta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 0-0 Gernika (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-10-19T10:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 0-1 Gernika (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-01-26T11:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 0-1 Gernika (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 1-1 Gernika (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-01-28T11:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 1-2 Gernika (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2023-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 1-3 Gernika (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2023-04-30T10:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 0-0 Gernika (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2022-12-17T16:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Alavés II 0-1 Gernika (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Bergantiños | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Compostela | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Amorebieta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Ourense CF | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Portugalete | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Gernika | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 11 | Basconia | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Atlético Astorga | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Arosa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Marino de Luanco | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Llanera | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gernika win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.