Estadio Municipal Chino Rivas · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Deportivo Ayense vs Huracanes Izcalli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Deportivo Ayense and 1.28 for Huracanes Izcalli, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Huracanes Izcalli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Ayense home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Huracanes Izcalli away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Deportivo Ayense
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing de Veracruz 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Lagunas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilas de Juanacatlan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracanes Izcalli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Racing · 2-2 (D)
Huracanes Izcalli
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Ayense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Poza Rica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acambaro · 3-8 (L)
- 2026-02-22T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Ayense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Artesanos Metepec · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Ayense 2-0 Huracanes Izcalli (Liga Premier Serie B)
- 2026-02-22T00:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Ayense 3-0 Huracanes Izcalli (Liga Premier Serie B)
- 2025-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Ayense 2-1 Huracanes Izcalli (Liga Premier Serie B)
- 2025-02-27T01:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Ayense 5-2 Huracanes Izcalli (Liga Premier Serie B)
- 2024-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Ayense 0-0 Huracanes Izcalli (Liga Premier Serie B)
- 2024-03-24T00:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Ayense 3-0 Huracanes Izcalli (Liga Premier Serie B)
- 2023-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Ayense 1-0 Huracanes Izcalli (Liga Premier Serie B)
Liga Premier Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 |
| 2 | Irapuato II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Celaya 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Gorilas de Juanacatlan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 5 | Huracanes Izcalli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul Lagunas | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Ayense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Heroes de Zaci 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 | Internacional Laguna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -11 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Hidalgo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.