Estadio Guillermo Briceno Rosamedina · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
Deportivo Binacional vs Comerciantes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Deportivo Binacional and 2.78 for Comerciantes, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Comerciantes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Comerciantes win
76.4% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Binacional home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comerciantes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Comerciantes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 10% / 14% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Deportivo Binacional and 2.78 for Comerciantes, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.8%
- 0–39.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Deportivo Binacional
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Academia Cantolao · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Universidad · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo 2 · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayacucho FC · 1-7 (L)
Comerciantes
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Ayacucho FC · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Binacional · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Minas · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Binacional 1-0 Comerciantes (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-16T20:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Binacional 0-3 Comerciantes (Segunda División)
- 2024-07-09T20:15:00.000Z · Deportivo Binacional 1-6 Comerciantes (Segunda División)
- 2024-05-20T20:15:00.000Z · Deportivo Binacional 2-0 Comerciantes (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -43 | 0 |
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -39 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Comerciantes win, at 76.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.