Estadio Deportivo Cali · Referee Bismark Elias Santiago Pitalua, Colombia · Analysis updated 06:55 UTC
Deportivo Cali vs Águilas Doradas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.71 for Águilas Doradas, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Deportivo Cali the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Cali win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Cali home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Águilas Doradas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Cali to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.71 for Águilas Doradas, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–18.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 61.8% vs market 52.0%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 52.0% | 61.8% | 1.62 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.1% | 80.9% | 1.24 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 53.1% | 53.2% | 1.88 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 19.1% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 27.7% | 3.61 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.2% | 46.8% | 2.14 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 48.0% | 38.2% | 2.62 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Deportivo Cali
- 2026-09-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Fe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Cucuta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:10:00.000Z · A vs Once Caldas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Millonarios · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 0-3 (L)
Águilas Doradas
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Tolima · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucaramanga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Valledupar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguares · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Cali · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 10 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Cali win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.