Estadio Deportivo Cali · Referee W. Roldan · Analysis updated 04:21 UTC
Deportivo Cali vs Internacional de Bogota Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.68 for Internacional de Bogota, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Deportivo Cali the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Cali win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Cali home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Internacional de Bogota away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Cali to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.68 for Internacional de Bogota, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Deportivo Cali
- 2026-09-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Fe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Cucuta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:10:00.000Z · A vs Once Caldas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Millonarios · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 0-3 (L)
Internacional de Bogota
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pereira · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Bucaramanga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T01:20:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Nacional · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:05:00.000Z · H vs Llaneros · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Cundinamarca · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 10 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Alianza Valledupar | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 18 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 17 |
| 15 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Cali win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.