· Analysis updated 03:41 UTC
Deportivo Capiata vs 3 de Noviembre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Deportivo Capiata and 1.50 for 3 de Noviembre, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives 3 de Noviembre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Capiata home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 3 de Noviembre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Deportivo Capiata and 1.50 for 3 de Noviembre, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Deportivo Capiata
- 2026-10-02T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Carapeguá · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs 12 de Junio VH · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Encarnación · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Santani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fernando De La Mora · 0-1 (L)
3 de Noviembre
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Intermedia table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Santani | 30 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 60 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 57 |
| 3 | 12 de Junio VH | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 55 |
| 4 | Paraguari AC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 47 |
| 5 | SOL DE America | 30 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 45 |
| 6 | Independiente F.b.c. | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 43 |
| 7 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 43 |
| 8 | Benjamín Aceval | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 42 |
| 9 | Resistencia | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 | Atlético Tembetary | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 37 |
| 11 | Deportivo Capiata | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 35 |
| 12 | Fernando De La Mora | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -12 | 34 |
| 13 | 3 de Noviembre | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -8 | 30 |
| 14 | Guairena FC | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 29 |
| 15 | Tacuary | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -14 | 27 |
| 16 | Encarnación | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | -14 | 26 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.