Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee Jordi Espinoza · Analysis updated 04:00 UTC
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.82 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Garcilaso win
72.3% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Garcilaso home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 17% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.82 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.5%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–17.9%
Recent form
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Garcilaso win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.