Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.11 for Comerciantes Unidos, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Deportivo Garcilaso win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Garcilaso home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comerciantes Unidos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.11 for Comerciantes Unidos, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–18.7%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.3%
Recent form
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 4-1 (W)
Comerciantes Unidos
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Garcilaso win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.