Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee Joel Alarcon, Peru · Analysis updated 08:59 UTC
Deportivo Garcilaso vs FC Cajamarca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.02 for FC Cajamarca, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Garcilaso win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Garcilaso home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Cajamarca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.02 for FC Cajamarca, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 4-1 (W)
FC Cajamarca
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Garcilaso win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.