Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee J. C. Quiroz · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Deportivo Garcilaso vs UCV Moquegua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.61 for UCV Moquegua, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Garcilaso win
69.2% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Garcilaso home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UCV Moquegua away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 20% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.61 for UCV Moquegua, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–014.6%
- 3–09.5%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 4-1 (W)
UCV Moquegua
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Garcilaso win, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.