Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee Jordi Espinoza · Analysis updated 21:37 UTC
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.53 for Universitario, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Garcilaso home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
Universitario
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Garcilaso 4-0 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2026-04-23T01:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Garcilaso 1-4 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2025-11-08T02:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2025-07-06T22:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2024-08-17T01:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Garcilaso 1-3 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2024-03-09T01:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-08-20T00:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Garcilaso 1-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-04-01T00:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 Universitario (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.