Estadio Abanca-Riazor · Referee G. Riu · Analysis updated 10:46 UTC
Deportivo La Coruña II vs Ponferradina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruña II and 1.02 for Ponferradina, a combined total of 1.81. That distribution gives Ponferradina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.2% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo La Coruña II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ponferradina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ponferradina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 28% / 32% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Deportivo La Coruña II and 1.02 for Ponferradina, a combined 1.81 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.6%
- 0–016.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
Deportivo La Coruña II
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 2-0 (W)
Ponferradina
- 2026-10-24T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Barakaldo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Zamora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Avilés · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirandes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Pontevedra · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mérida AD | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Athletic Club II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Zamora | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Cultural Leonesa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.