Deportivo La Coruna vs Espanyol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.50 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Espanyol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Espanyol win

48.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportivo La Coruna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Espanyol away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo La Coruna win25%

Draw26%

Espanyol win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

0–112.3%
1–112.3%
0–29.2%
1–29.2%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Deportivo La Coruna

2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)

Espanyol

2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2018-02-23T20:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2017-09-24T10:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 1-4 Espanyol (La Liga)
2017-05-07T16:30:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 1-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
2017-01-06T19:45:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2016-02-20T17:15:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2015-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 3-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2015-03-22T11:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2014-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2013-05-19T15:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 2-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2012-12-20T21:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 0-2 Espanyol (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Espanyol win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.