· Analysis updated 02:39 UTC
Deportivo La Coruna vs Lugo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.45 for Lugo, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Lugo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo La Coruna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lugo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lugo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.45 for Lugo, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Deportivo La Coruna
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)
Lugo
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Unión · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruña II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Avilés · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Ferrol · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.