Estadio Municipal de Riazor · Referee C. Soto Grado · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.45 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Real Betis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Betis win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo La Coruna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Betis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 50.2% vs market 42.9%, edge +7.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.9% | 50.2% | 1.99 | +7.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 27.2% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 46.3% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.5% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 54.0% | 53.7% | 1.86 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 57.1% | 49.8% | 2.01 | -7.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Deportivo La Coruna
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
Real Betis
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
- 2018-02-12T20:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
- 2017-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 1-2 Real Betis (La Liga)
- 2017-03-08T17:45:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
- 2016-08-26T18:45:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 Real Betis (La Liga)
- 2016-02-13T21:05:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 2-2 Real Betis (La Liga)
- 2015-09-24T20:05:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
- 2013-04-29T20:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
- 2012-12-02T16:00:00.000Z · Deportivo La Coruna 2-3 Real Betis (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Betis win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.