Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee A. Herrera · Analysis updated 11:25 UTC
Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.95 for Estudiantes de Merida FC, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Deportivo La Guaira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo La Guaira win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo La Guaira home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes de Merida FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo La Guaira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.95 for Estudiantes de Merida FC, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–06.9%
Recent form
Deportivo La Guaira
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello · 1-1 (D)
Estudiantes de Merida FC
- 2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo La Guaira win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.