Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee A. Herrera · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.78 for Metropolitanos FC, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Deportivo La Guaira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.1% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo La Guaira home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metropolitanos FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo La Guaira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 33% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.78 for Metropolitanos FC, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Deportivo La Guaira
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello · 1-1 (D)
Metropolitanos FC
- 2026-08-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.