· Analysis updated 11:31 UTC
Deportivo Lara vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Deportivo Lara and 1.38 for Rayo Zuliano, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Rayo Zuliano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.7% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Lara home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Zuliano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rayo Zuliano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 29% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Deportivo Lara and 1.38 for Rayo Zuliano, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Deportivo Lara
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 2-3 (L)
Rayo Zuliano
- 2026-10-21T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitanos FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Lara · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T23:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Lara 1-3 Rayo Zuliano (Copa Venezuela)
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Lara | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 | Trujillanos FC | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.