Deportivo Lara vs Urena SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Deportivo Lara and 0.81 for Urena SC, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Deportivo Lara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Deportivo Lara win

63.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.91 – 0.81

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportivo Lara home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Urena SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Lara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Deportivo Lara and 0.81 for Urena SC, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo Lara win63%

Draw22%

Urena SC win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.6%
2–012.0%
1–110.2%
2–19.7%
3–07.6%

Recent form

Deportivo Lara

2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC B · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 2-3 (L)

Urena SC

2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Lara · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Lara · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-07T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Lara	32	21	7	4	32	70
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	32	16	8	8	22	56
3	Yaracuyanos FC	32	16	7	9	19	55
4	Urena SC	32	12	12	8	3	48
5	Atletico el Vigia FC	32	12	8	12	-9	44
6	Zamora FC B	31	12	7	12	4	43
7	Club Atletico Barinas	32	10	5	17	-10	35
8	Puerto Cabello II	33	9	7	17	-14	34
9	Real Frontera	32	4	3	25	-47	15
1	Monagas II	25	13	6	6	11	45
2	Aragua FC	26	11	10	5	10	43
3	Petare FC	26	12	6	8	9	42
4	Bolívar	26	12	5	9	0	41
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	26	9	9	8	3	36
6	Mineros de Guyana	26	4	10	12	-10	22
7	Marítimo	15	5	5	5	0	20
8	Atletico Avila FC	26	1	11	14	-23	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportivo Lara win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.