· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.22 expected goals for Deportivo Maldonado and 0.96 for Wanderers, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Deportivo Maldonado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Maldonado win
80.7% probability
Expected goals
3.22 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Maldonado home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wanderers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Maldonado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.22 goals for Deportivo Maldonado and 0.96 for Wanderers, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.5%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 4–06.8%
Recent form
Deportivo Maldonado
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Largo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensor Sporting · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Wanderers · 4-1 (W)
Wanderers
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Progreso · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Montevideo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston River · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerrito · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Uruguay table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Boston River | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Juventud | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Danubio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Cerrito | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Plaza Colonia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | CA River Plate | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atletico Torque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Wanderers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Oriental | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Colón | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Maldonado win, at 80.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.