Deportivo Moron vs Almagro Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Deportivo Moron and 0.93 for Almagro, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Deportivo Moron the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Deportivo Moron win

58.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportivo Moron home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Almagro away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Moron to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Deportivo Moron and 0.93 for Almagro, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo Moron win59%

Draw23%

Almagro win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.7%
1–110.8%
2–010.6%
2–19.8%
3–06.5%

Recent form

Deportivo Moron

2026-10-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Almirante Brown · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Mitre · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Estudiantes · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs All Boys · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Andes · 1-2 (L)

Almagro

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Chacarita Juniors · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin S.J. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Nueva Chicago · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Temperley · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Maipu · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	19	8	8	7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	35	18	9	8	19	63
3	Deportivo Moron	35	17	7	11	14	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	15	12	8	20	57
5	Colon Santa Fe	35	15	12	8	16	57
6	Almirante Brown	35	13	12	10	5	51
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	35	13	12	10	-1	51
8	CA Estudiantes	35	13	10	12	1	49
9	Chaco For Ever	35	11	10	14	0	43
10	Los Andes	35	9	15	11	1	42
11	Racing Cordoba	35	10	10	15	-11	40
12	Atletico Mitre	35	8	15	12	-11	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	8	14	12	-7	38
14	Central Norte	35	7	17	11	-8	38
15	All Boys	35	7	17	11	-9	38
16	San Telmo	35	9	11	15	-12	38
17	Acassuso	35	8	10	17	-10	34
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	35	16	15	4	18	63
2	Atlanta	35	19	4	12	8	61
3	Temperley	35	16	12	7	12	60
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	35	16	10	9	8	58
5	Midland	35	15	9	11	14	54
6	Gimnasia Y Tiro	35	14	10	11	3	52
7	Deportivo Maipu	35	14	9	12	9	51
8	Colegiales	35	14	9	12	4	51
9	San Martin S.J.	34	12	11	11	2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	11	13	11	2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	12	10	13	-6	46
12	Agropecuario	35	11	10	14	-9	43
13	Quilmes	35	11	9	15	2	42
14	Almagro	35	11	9	15	-10	42
15	Chacarita Juniors	35	11	6	18	-8	39
16	Patronato	35	7	16	12	-6	37
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	35	6	8	21	-34	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportivo Moron win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.