Argentina · Primera Nacional · Matchweek 2718:30

2 – 1

Sunday, 30 August 2026

Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano · Analysis updated 22:36 UTC

Deportivo Moron vs San Miguel Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Deportivo Moron and 0.70 for San Miguel, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Deportivo Moron the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Deportivo Moron win

51.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportivo Moron home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
San Miguel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Moron to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 29% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Deportivo Moron and 0.70 for San Miguel, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo Moron win51%

Draw29%

San Miguel win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.6%
0–013.5%
1–112.3%
2–011.4%
0–19.5%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.7%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.95	46.7%	49.1%	2.04	+2.4
Match result	Away	4.80	18.8%	20.1%	4.98	+1.3
Both teams to score	No	1.44	63.0%	63.4%	1.58	+0.4
Goals	Under 2.5	1.38	67.4%	67.7%	1.48	+0.3
Match result	Home	1.77	51.1%	51.0%	1.96	-0.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.28	71.2%	71.1%	1.41	-0.1
Goals	Over 2.5	2.85	32.6%	32.3%	3.10	-0.3
Both teams to score	Yes	2.45	37.0%	36.6%	2.73	-0.4
Match result	Draw	3.00	30.1%	29.0%	3.45	-1.1
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.11	82.1%	80.0%	1.25	-2.1

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Deportivo Moron

2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Andes · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Godoy Cruz · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Colon Santa Fe · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs San Miguel · 2-1 (W)

San Miguel

2026-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Almirante Brown · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Mitre · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Estudiantes · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs All Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Los Andes · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	19	8	8	7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	17	9	8	16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	35	17	7	11	14	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	15	12	8	20	57
5	Colon Santa Fe	35	15	12	8	16	57
6	Almirante Brown	35	13	12	10	5	51
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	35	13	12	10	-1	51
8	CA Estudiantes	35	13	10	12	1	49
9	Chaco For Ever	35	11	10	14	0	43
10	Los Andes	35	9	15	11	1	42
11	Racing Cordoba	35	10	10	15	-11	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	8	15	11	-8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	8	14	12	-7	38
14	All Boys	35	7	17	11	-9	38
15	San Telmo	35	9	11	15	-12	38
16	Central Norte	34	7	16	11	-8	37
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	-10	33
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	35	16	15	4	18	63
2	Temperley	34	16	12	6	13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	16	10	8	9	58
4	Atlanta	34	18	4	12	7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	14	10	10	6	52
6	Midland	34	14	9	11	11	51
7	Colegiales	35	14	9	12	4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	12	11	11	2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	11	13	11	2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	12	10	13	-6	46
12	Quilmes	35	11	9	15	2	42
13	Almagro	35	11	9	15	-10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	-11	40
15	Patronato	34	7	16	11	-4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	-9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	6	8	20	-32	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportivo Moron win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.