Estadio Departamental Libertad · Analysis updated 20:31 UTC
Deportivo Pasto W vs Santa Fe W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Deportivo Pasto W and 1.90 for Santa Fe W, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Santa Fe W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Fe W win
60.3% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Pasto W home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Fe W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Fe W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 18% / 22% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Deportivo Pasto W and 1.90 for Santa Fe W, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.3%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.8%
Recent form
Deportivo Pasto W
- 2026-08-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs La Equidad W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Once Caldas W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Cali W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Nacional W · 1-3 (L)
Santa Fe W
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Millonarios W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Millonarios W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cali W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T20:30:00.000Z · A vs América de Cali W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali W | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 61 |
| 2 | Millonarios W | 24 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | Atlético Nacional W | 24 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 48 |
| 4 | América de Cali W | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 45 |
| 5 | Santa Fe W | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | La Equidad W | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Internacional Palmira W | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Orsomarso W | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín W | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Fortaleza W | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Atlético Bucaramanga W | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 17 |
| 12 | Llaneros W | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -22 | 13 |
| 13 | Junior W | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Santander W | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Once Caldas W | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto W | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | -16 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Fe W win, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.