Santiago de las Atalayas · Referee Fernando Bautista, Colombia · Analysis updated 00:42 UTC
Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.24 for Internacional de Bogota, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Internacional de Bogota the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Pereira home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Internacional de Bogota away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Internacional de Bogota to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.24 for Internacional de Bogota, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 54.8% vs market 50.0%, edge +4.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +4.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.65 | 57.0% | 58.5% | 1.71 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.6% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.7% | 28.5% | 3.51 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.7% | 41.5% | 2.41 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.7% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 71.5% | 1.40 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -4.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Deportivo Pereira
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cali · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Cucuta · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional de Bogota · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas Doradas · 2-2 (D)
Internacional de Bogota
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pereira · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Bucaramanga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T01:20:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Nacional · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:05:00.000Z · H vs Llaneros · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Cundinamarca · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 10 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.