Estadio Defensores del Chaco · Referee A. M. Matonte Cabrera · Analysis updated 21:28 UTC
Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.15 for Boca Juniors, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.0% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Recoleta home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Juniors away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 27% / 30% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.15 for Boca Juniors, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Deportivo Recoleta
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 1-2 (L)
Boca Juniors
- 2026-10-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL Sudamericana table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Tigre | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | America de Cali | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 1 | Atletico-MG | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Cienciano | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 3 | Juventud | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Puerto Cabello | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 1 | Sao Paulo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | O'Higgins | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Boston River | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 2 | Santos | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 1 | Botafogo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Caracas FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Racing Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Independiente | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Gremio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Deportivo Riestra | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 4 | Palestino | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Olimpia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Vasco DA Gama | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | A. Italiano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 1 | River Plate | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | RB Bragantino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Carabobo FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Blooming | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.