Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio · Referee Derlis Lopez, Paraguay · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Deportivo Recoleta vs Cerro Porteno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.42 for Cerro Porteno, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Deportivo Recoleta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Recoleta home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cerro Porteno away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Recoleta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.42 for Cerro Porteno, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–18.0%
Recent form
Deportivo Recoleta
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 1-2 (L)
Cerro Porteno
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Sportivo Trinidense | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.