· Analysis updated 08:05 UTC
Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Lanús Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra Res. and 1.15 for Lanús Res., a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Deportivo Riestra Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Riestra Res. home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lanús Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Riestra Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Deportivo Riestra Res. and 1.15 for Lanús Res., a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Deportivo Riestra Res.
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central Res. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 2-0 (W)
Lanús Res.
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín San Juan Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Riva. Res. · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra Res. · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.