Estadio Alfredo Beranger · Referee M. Ramirez · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Deportivo Riestra vs Banfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra and 1.65 for Banfield, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Banfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Banfield win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Riestra home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Banfield away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Banfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Deportivo Riestra and 1.65 for Banfield, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
Banfield
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Banfield win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.