Estadio Guillermo Laza · Referee H. Mastrangelo · Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Deportivo Riestra vs Boca Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra and 1.33 for Boca Juniors, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boca Juniors win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Riestra home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Juniors away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 19% / 29% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Deportivo Riestra and 1.33 for Boca Juniors, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.9%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–09.1%
Recent form
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
Boca Juniors
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Juniors win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.