Estadio Guillermo Laza · Referee A. Merlos · Analysis updated 20:34 UTC
Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra and 0.63 for Central Cordoba de Santiago, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Deportivo Riestra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Riestra win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Riestra home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Central Cordoba de Santiago away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Riestra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 31% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Deportivo Riestra and 0.63 for Central Cordoba de Santiago, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.3%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–110.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.53 (model 67.8% vs market 60.9%, edge +6.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.53 | 60.9% | 67.8% | 1.47 | +6.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.8% | 80.2% | 1.25 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.7% | 19.9% | 5.03 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.9% | 51.1% | 1.96 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 49.0% | 49.0% | 2.04 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.3% | 31.2% | 3.21 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.3% | 68.9% | 1.45 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.38 | 39.1% | 32.2% | 3.11 | -6.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-18T00:15:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 0-1 Central Cordoba de Santiago (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 2-0 Central Cordoba de Santiago (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-03-01T01:15:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 0-0 Central Cordoba de Santiago (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-08-05T17:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 1-0 Central Cordoba de Santiago (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Riestra win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.