Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello · Referee P. Echavarria · Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra and 2.00 for Gimnasia L.P., a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Gimnasia L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia L.P. win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Riestra home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia L.P. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.0%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
Gimnasia L.P.
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-18T20:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Copa Argentina)
- 2025-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 1-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-03-10T22:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 0-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 1-2 Gimnasia L.P. (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia L.P. win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.