Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros · Analysis updated 07:58 UTC
Deportivo Rincon vs Santamarina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Deportivo Rincon and 0.63 for Santamarina, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Deportivo Rincon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
78.0% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Rincon home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santamarina away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Rincon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 34% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Deportivo Rincon and 0.63 for Santamarina, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.7%
- 0–019.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Deportivo Rincon
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-1 (D)
Santamarina
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-06-08T14:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Rincon 2-0 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Rincon 0-1 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-06-30T14:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Rincon 2-3 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-04T19:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Rincon 1-0 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.