· Analysis updated 08:03 UTC
Deportivo San Pedro vs Cobán Imperial Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Deportivo San Pedro and 0.72 for Cobán Imperial, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Deportivo San Pedro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo San Pedro win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo San Pedro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cobán Imperial away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo San Pedro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Deportivo San Pedro and 0.72 for Cobán Imperial, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–19.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 62.9% vs market 51.5%, edge +11.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 62.9% | 1.59 | +11.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.4% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.9% | 29.2% | 3.42 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.7% | 70.8% | 1.41 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.80 | 49.8% | 49.8% | 2.01 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.3% | 21.0% | 4.76 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.9% | 50.2% | 1.99 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 37.1% | 2.70 | -11.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Deportivo San Pedro
- 2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Suchitepéquez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Comunicaciones · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Xelajú · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Guastatoya · 1-2 (L)
Cobán Imperial
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marquense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mixco · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Antigua GFC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T20:50:00.000Z · Deportivo San Pedro 1-1 Cobán Imperial (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Municipal | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | Mixco | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Xelajú | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Marquense | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 24 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | Aurora | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Comunicaciones | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo San Pedro win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.