· Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Deportivo San Pedro vs Municipal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Deportivo San Pedro and 1.05 for Municipal, a combined total of 1.94. That distribution gives Municipal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo San Pedro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Municipal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Municipal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 30% / 31% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Deportivo San Pedro and 1.05 for Municipal, a combined 1.94 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 0–014.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Deportivo San Pedro
- 2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Suchitepéquez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Comunicaciones · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Xelajú · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Guastatoya · 1-2 (L)
Municipal
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Xelajú · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mixco · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Guastatoya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Marquense · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Municipal | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | Mixco | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Xelajú | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Marquense | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 24 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | Aurora | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Comunicaciones | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.