Deportivo Santani vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Deportivo Santani and 1.04 for Independiente F.b.c., a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Deportivo Santani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Deportivo Santani win

57.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportivo Santani home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente F.b.c. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Santani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Deportivo Santani and 1.04 for Independiente F.b.c., a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo Santani win57%

Draw22%

Independiente F.b.c. win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–010.2%
2–19.9%
2–09.6%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Deportivo Santani

2026-10-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Guairena FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Resistencia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs SOL DE America · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Capiata · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente F.b.c. · 1-2 (L)

Independiente F.b.c.

2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Carapeguá · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 12 de Junio VH · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Encarnación · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Santani · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Santani	29	18	3	8	22	57
2	General Caballero	29	17	5	7	21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	15	9	5	11	54
4	Paraguari AC	30	14	5	11	7	47
5	SOL DE America	30	10	15	5	7	45
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	11	10	9	5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	12	7	11	-6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	12	6	11	4	42
9	Resistencia	29	10	9	10	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	30	10	7	13	-7	37
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	8	11	10	-3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	29	9	7	13	-10	34
13	3 de Noviembre	30	7	9	14	-8	30
14	Guairena FC	30	7	8	15	-15	29
15	Tacuary	29	5	12	12	-14	27
16	Encarnación	30	7	5	18	-14	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportivo Santani win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.