Deportivo Saprissa vs Firpo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Deportivo Saprissa and 1.22 for Firpo, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Deportivo Saprissa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Deportivo Saprissa win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Deportivo Saprissa home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Saprissa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Deportivo Saprissa and 1.22 for Firpo, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo Saprissa win56%

Draw22%

Firpo win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.7%
2–08.0%
1–08.0%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Deportivo Saprissa

2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Cartagines · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-16T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 6-0 (W)
2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Escorpiones Belén · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Herediano · 2-0 (W)

Firpo

2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Saprissa · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Inca Aruba · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Limeño · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONCACAF Central American Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	6	6	0	0	12	18
2	LD Alajuelense	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	CD Motagua	6	3	3	0	9	12
4	CS Cartagines	6	3	3	0	7	12
5	Deportivo Saprissa	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Alianza	6	3	1	2	-2	10
7	CD Marathon	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	CS Herediano	4	2	1	1	2	7
9	Firpo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
10	Municipal	4	1	3	0	1	6
11	Plaza Amador	4	2	0	2	0	6
12	Mixco	4	2	0	2	0	6
13	Real Estelí	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	FAS	4	1	1	2	0	4
15	Xelajú	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Alianza FC	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Diriangén	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	UMECIT	4	0	0	4	-6	0
19	Antigua GFC	4	0	0	4	-7	0
20	Verdes	4	0	0	4	-13	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportivo Saprissa win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.