· Referee A. Chinchilla Chavez · Analysis updated 22:20 UTC
Deportivo Saprissa vs San Carlos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Deportivo Saprissa and 0.86 for San Carlos, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Deportivo Saprissa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Saprissa win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Saprissa home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
San Carlos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Deportivo Saprissa
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Cartagines · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Escorpiones Belén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Herediano · 2-0 (W)
San Carlos
- 2026-10-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter San Carlos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Herediano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Cartagines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T22:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 2-1 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2026-03-23T00:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 3-1 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2026-02-08T21:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 2-1 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2025-10-16T01:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 2-0 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2025-08-02T02:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 2-0 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2025-03-09T21:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 3-0 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2025-01-12T01:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 1-0 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2024-12-11T02:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 2-0 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2024-12-07T01:30:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 2-2 San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2024-11-24T01:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Saprissa 0-0 San Carlos (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Puntarenas FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 7 | Inter San Carlos | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 18 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Saprissa win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.